Calm After the Storm – How the India-Pakistan Ceasefire May Influence Markets Next Week

In a dramatic turn of events, the ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan, announced with cautious optimism, was violated within just three hours of its declaration. The swift breakdown of the truce has reignited fears of prolonged conflict, casting a heavy cloud over investor sentiment heading into the trading week of May 13–17, 2025.

This abrupt escalation has not only shaken geopolitical stability but also introduced fresh uncertainty into the Indian stock market. While technical indicators and astrological setups had hinted at a possible short-term recovery post-ceasefire, the renewed hostility now calls for a more defensive and risk-aware approach.

Astrologically, the week features volatile nakshatras, bearish lunar transitions, and tense planetary aspects, which align with the expected turbulence and emotional market swings. Investors should prepare for sharp intraday reactions, sector-specific volatility, and a generally cautious mood across indices.

In this forecast, we take a conservative stance, decoding the week’s astrological signals and layering them with real-world developments to guide traders and investors through what may be another unstable and reactive week on Dalal Street.


12th May 2025 – Monday

  • Moon was placed in Vishakha Nakshatra in Libra, a nakshatra ruled by Jupiter, which was mildly pressured by malefic aspects like Rahu, Ketu, and Mars through square and semi-square aspects.
  • The nature of this day leaned toward sideways to slightly bearish, driven by indecision and volatility. Emotional stability in the market seemed low due to Tithi being Poornima (full Moon), increasing emotional sensitivity among participants.
  • A short period around 12:30 to 13:00 showed increased activity potential, suggesting a delicate balance between buyers and sellers.
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Outlook: Markets could have remained range-bound with a slightly cautious bias.


13th May 2025 – Tuesday

  • Moon moved to Scorpio, entering Anuradha Nakshatra, which generally provides a supportive environment for recovery and disciplined optimism.
  • Strong supportive aspects from benefics like Saturn and Uranus, along with a favorable trine from the Moon to Saturn, painted a mildly bullish sentiment.
  • However, minor opposition from Uranus indicated a risk of sudden or unexpected price movement during the day.

Outlook: The market’s mood appeared more stable with some pockets of confidence returning, although not in full force.


14th May 2025 – Wednesday

  • The Moon transitioned between Anuradha (Pada 4) and Jyeshtha (Pada 1) — both ruled by Saturn and Mercury respectively.
  • While Anuradha lent a hint of carry-over bullishness from the previous day, the movement into Jyeshtha and Mercury’s involvement introduced mild confusion and short-term reactive trades.
  • Trine aspects from Mars and Venus helped maintain some equilibrium. A window between 11:30 to 12:00 saw relatively more clarity and momentum.

Outlook: Sentiment leaned towards consolidation with selective buying, especially in quality counters.


15th May 2025 – Thursday

  • The Moon shifted into late Jyeshtha and early Moola, transitioning from Scorpio to Sagittarius. Both nakshatras are known for sharp, intense reactions.
  • The day reflected low conviction and cautious sentiment with Mercury and Ketu as Nakshatra lords and a cluster of semi-square and square aspects from multiple planets.
  • A notable planetary event occurred as the Sun moved into Taurus and Jupiter into Gemini, indicating a subtle shift in longer-term outlook. However, short-term reactions to these changes can be uncertain and hesitant.
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Outlook: Intraday weakness or profit-booking may have been observed due to discomfort from planetary transitions.


16th May 2025 – Friday

  • The Moon remained in Moola Nakshatra, a powerful yet disruptive star ruled by Ketu.
  • The absence of strong benefic aspects, combined with square influence from Jupiter and semi-quadrates from Mercury, created a lack of clear direction in the market.
  • However, soft trines from Uranus and Sun indicated some underlying resilience, especially noticeable between 09:30 to 10:00.

Outlook: The market likely remained cautious with minor recovery attempts in select segments, but broad strength was limited.


Conclusion:

The week began on a slightly uncertain note, found moderate strength midweek, and then drifted into more cautious and reactive behavior toward the end. Planetary shifts midweek suggest a transition in sentiment trends, but no aggressive bullishness or bearishness dominated overall. Traders would have benefited from a sector-specific and conservative approach during this week.

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